The Dawn Raid is where our PNB gets to take the Guthrie back to Malaysian from the Britains. The Malaysian was holding about 25% of the shares that time and they need another 15% to becom the major shareholder. In order to do so, they plan to buy the stock over from most of the major shareholder at the same time in order to not letting the Britains knew about the plan.
On 7th september, thats the day that Tan Sri attack. Even there are some issue like rejection from the OCBC side to sell the share, but Tan Sri was able to mop the shares from the market and able to get 50.41% of the company's shares within 4 hours without the knowledge of Guthrie's management and major shareholders and that make us able to bring Guthrie back and merge it with Sime Darby in the later days.
To those who are interested with the dawn raid, u can check it here, but its only available in "Bahasa Malaysia" and thats how Tan Sri Khalid famous of.
http://www.jomjalan.com.my/blog/2013/04/06/dawn-raid-guthrie-1981/
Why do I relate the story of The Dawn Raid with Puncak Niaga?
1st, Puncak is strongly related to political party and the owner as well as the founder is Tan Sri Rozali who is believed to be a successful business man who is close to the UMNO and I believed thats the reason why the Selangor govt was having a hard time to take over the water assets.
As per last week, there are news saying that the Selangor Govt had get nod from the federal govt to take over the asset while the Selangor Govt had agreed to Langat 2 project if the cost is reasonable. Would that be a deal between them? Give me the water asset and green light for ur mega project? High possibility i guess!
Now, lets get back to Puncak, eventhough the Federal Govt had agreed on the take over to commence, but will Tan Sri Rozali giving his water asset our with kind heart? I guess thats 1 of the reason Tan Sri get lucrative remuneration for this year, because u need to dig the gold mine real hard before u letting go the Gold mine!
As I said, Tan Sri Rozali wouldn't let go the gold mine so easily, he will surely ask for good price or something Ridiculous! I guess thats the reason why Puncak niaga was flying this few days. As a result of that, The Dawn Raid keep on popping in my head!
Why? As per the latest Annual Report, we can see that the total holding of 3 major shareholders in Puncak is
1) Tans Sri Rozali with 40.83% shares (by using Corporate Line and Central Plus)
2) Lembaga Tabung Haji with 6.40% shares
3) EPF with 7.71%
But according to the latest announcement, where we saw Tan Sri Rozali had increased his stake while EPF had ceased from substantial shareholder and the holding now is
1) Tan Sri Rozali with 41.34% (according to 20 june 2013's announcement)
2) LTH still 6.4%
4) EPF with 4.95% ( according to 20 june 2013's announcement)
With it, we can see that there are 47.31% shares are free floating in the market. Why do I say Hostile take over?
As we can see, the surge of the Puncak Price come with a great volume and I had did some calculations on that,
3rd july 2013 : 34,983,200 was traded
4th July 2013 : 21,692,000 was traded
5th July 2013 : 34,674,500 was traded
Total vol traded was 91,349,700 where total shares of Puncak is 411,142,895. That shows 22.22% shares were traded? According to my observation, there are big eaters where they place 500 lots each time to support or to buy the shares, how many retailers can fork our RM100k each time to buy a share? There must be something big brewing! If it were to be the Selangor Govt, So how many percent have the Selangor govt mopped from the market til now? And how many % have EPF sold?An I'm certain that, the Selangor govt is smart and they may have moped the share of Puncak before all this happen, so how much have they mopped? Have they met and reached any agreement with other substantial shareholders?
Why do Selangor wanted to repeat the Dawn Raid, thats because having Puncak will make no hurdle for them to take over the water assets. The only concern here is, there are some ammendments in the regulations last year. The one that I mentioned is that, in order to take over the company, U will have to get 75% of the shareholders to agree on it. As a result of that, what if the Selangor have 47% shares while Tan Sri Rozali having 42% shares? The hostile take over will only be successful if only the 75% shareholders mentioned are not from the major shareholders that r having tussle.
On the other hand, there are free warrants coming out and the ex-date is on15 July 2013. Why do it come at this time?
To me, this corporate exercise is one of the way for Tan Sri Rozali to have tighther grip on the company. As we can see, Tan Sri had just got a handsome money from remuneration and he will get to hold more share holding in the company if he were to exercise the warrant!!! Why? If Tan Sri is the only one who exercise the warrants, thats mean the shareholdings of other shareholders will be diluted and its harder for other to attack his company.
But be mindful, everything is double edge, A knife can helps to cut and it can cut u too! Why? As we can see, Tan Sri get more shares for holding the shares, the one who is mopping now can get the free warrants and exercise it to get more share holding too! That's the bargaining chip for them! and if that's the case, I think the warrant gonna be really valuable for all the shareholders and it's going to bring handsome gain.
After all, I think the story of Puncak still hasn't end and this time its going to be real and the Minority Shareholders are going to be happy if hostile take over is happening as this gonna drive the price fly up high. May All the shareholders gonna earn big this time or it hits the target price of Kenanga Investment Bank research which is RM3.5 per piece! Huat ah!
As a shareholder, I think I'm going to hold as I believe this gonna give good return, but be mindful, correction might come anytime as it had shot about 90 cents is a week. As I believe, active trading will have higher possibility to mistakes and I've decided to hug it! May it bring good fortune to you and me! Huat Ah!
p/s: Please comment and correct me if there is something that u r not agree with. Appreciate somebody could give the right answer whether which 75% of the shareholders that were mentioned in the regulation.
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