1st of all, I would like to congratulate those who followed my buy call on Puncak and I'm so happy as some of those customer did call me and tell me about it. To me, I think Puncak still have lots of potential and let's get our finger crossed!
The Hidden GEM!
Even though we have ruled out that the highest possibility for the MGO is to achieve more than 50% shares and make it conditional, but we have to be careful that this might turnout to be compulsory take over or get more than 90% which will trigger the market spread issue. So what should we do?
The easiest way to make sure that this company will remain listing with the recent MGO is by ensuring 25% of the shares holding will not fall into the hand of the Offeror. This translates into 242,105,730 shares or a sum of RM 416,421,855.6 at the price of (RM1.72 per share) in the market.
In order to comply with the market spread regulation, the company has to make sure there are 10% of shares are floating in the market or in the hand of minority shareholders.
According to what I've posted on the previous article, Tan Sri is now holding about 36.72% That's mean if there are 25% shareholders didn't sell their stake and keep holding their shares then the offeror will not able to take the company go private!
I know, its not easy to have such a big amount to take up such huge amount of shares all on our own just like what had happened to HLCap but I've learned something since I was young is
Unity is Strength.
The photo above shows the power of Unity!
How to do that?
1st You can share this blog and ask ur friends who own this stock to read this. I'm not trying to advertise my blog or what, but this blogs help u to tell ur friend why do he need to keep or even buy more of this share!
2nd I would advice all the shareholders for not accepting the offer and HOLD the share!!!
U knew how much the share value and the potential of the company, so Y selling???
To all those dear remisier and dealer who are reading this, you can help your client by advising them not to accept the offer too! This is because those uncles and aunties don't know much and U do play an important role to make sure this market is a place for small fish like me too! Or else, no one gonna go in to the market anymore!
3rd Buy the share!
This might sounds crazy to you but to be frank, I'm still calling a buy and buying for myself too! Why?
Do U think Tan Sri is not smart? As I explain before, Tan Sri is a very very smart person who is good in doing business and also an Investment banker! So do U think its stupid to follow smart money? The only risk for following smart money this time is afraid of being eat by the smart money!
Don't worry, your risk is just few hundred bucks as there is a willing buyer to buy it from U with RM1.68 for the time being and your reward will be getting back more than what U invested in future! In short, the down side risk is minimal and the upside is there as U knew how much the share price should worth!
On the other hand, ask your friends to buy too! We create demand for the shares and show the power of minority shareholders! Your friends and you wouldn't be losing money as this shares worth more than what its trading currently!
Some might ask, if the share really worth that much then how come the price doesnt reflect now?
The answer is simple, 1st the market is inefficient and 2nd thats what value investing about! If every shares had already fully reflected the real value of the share, then U wouldn't have any chance to do value investing already!
The Trading Price
Btw, 1 thing that I notice and I felt interesting is the current trading pattern for OSK where they are trading above the offer price. Why?
1st Just like what I said previously, the boss are playing psychological game with those uncles and aunties. I offer U RM1.68 and now trading at RM1.7-RM1.72. Good deal to sell in the market right? So will the buyer who bought at RM1.7 and above going to accept the offer? I've no idea, but this might happen.
2nd Speculation that the offeror going to revise the price? Potentially, but let me get enough acceptance at this level 1st. So that I can decide a better price or lower price if I've got enough support for now.
3rd Looking at today's trading volume, I really can't understand who is the one who are queueing to sell at RM1.70++ and also who are the one throwing at RM1.70. Do they know what are they doing? Or this is not the retailers who are throwing but an invinsible hand that is throwing the shares to scare everybody off?
Looking at the price now, I still think that the risk of the minority shareholders that their share being taken over is still very big, it will be better off if its trading at RM1.90 or higher.
Too bad that I'm nor rich enough or else I'm going to do the job like what the YNH Property boss did to HLCap. Lol..
Last but not least, the RHB 16.09 cents dividend is on its way. Will the management of OSK reinvest it? or take the cash? It's an interesting question isn't it? If they reinvested in it, thats mean 1 OSK will own more than 0.25 shares of RHB compare to before the reinvestment.
The Winner of the game
1st Tan Sri wins if he able to privatize the company below RM2
2nd Tan Sri wins if he is able to make the deal turn unconditional which means 50%+1 acceptance
3rd Tan Sri lose if he fails to make the deal turns unconditional.
4th Tan Sri lose if he fails to add up more stakes in the company.
5th Minority who knows the value of the company wins as long as the company is not being taken over!
Myth
There are some people saying that the MGO can turns out to be VGO after achieving more than 50% acceptance. Im not sure whether how true is that, but I've consulted some of the colleagues in advisory site, they said that is not possible.
Summary
To avoid your shares being taken private, you can
1. Hold tight as its not a junk stock but a deeply undervalue stock.
2. Buy more for yourself as like what I'm doing and ask your friend to buy too!
3. Ask your friends to read this and try to convince them to hold or even buy!
4. By doing so, I believe we will lessen down the supply and increase the demand and I bet that U know whats going to happen next, right?
Disclaimer: I've no intention to push up the share price but giving an independent view on the company itself and no information should be concluded as buy or sell, please consult your personal remisier for your personal investment decision. I will not pay for your losses but I don't mind you to buy me good food if U made money by following my Investment Thoughts. Cheers! Huat ah!
U knew how much the share value and the potential of the company, so Y selling???
To all those dear remisier and dealer who are reading this, you can help your client by advising them not to accept the offer too! This is because those uncles and aunties don't know much and U do play an important role to make sure this market is a place for small fish like me too! Or else, no one gonna go in to the market anymore!
3rd Buy the share!
This might sounds crazy to you but to be frank, I'm still calling a buy and buying for myself too! Why?
Do U think Tan Sri is not smart? As I explain before, Tan Sri is a very very smart person who is good in doing business and also an Investment banker! So do U think its stupid to follow smart money? The only risk for following smart money this time is afraid of being eat by the smart money!
Don't worry, your risk is just few hundred bucks as there is a willing buyer to buy it from U with RM1.68 for the time being and your reward will be getting back more than what U invested in future! In short, the down side risk is minimal and the upside is there as U knew how much the share price should worth!
On the other hand, ask your friends to buy too! We create demand for the shares and show the power of minority shareholders! Your friends and you wouldn't be losing money as this shares worth more than what its trading currently!
Some might ask, if the share really worth that much then how come the price doesnt reflect now?
The answer is simple, 1st the market is inefficient and 2nd thats what value investing about! If every shares had already fully reflected the real value of the share, then U wouldn't have any chance to do value investing already!
The Trading Price
Btw, 1 thing that I notice and I felt interesting is the current trading pattern for OSK where they are trading above the offer price. Why?
1st Just like what I said previously, the boss are playing psychological game with those uncles and aunties. I offer U RM1.68 and now trading at RM1.7-RM1.72. Good deal to sell in the market right? So will the buyer who bought at RM1.7 and above going to accept the offer? I've no idea, but this might happen.
2nd Speculation that the offeror going to revise the price? Potentially, but let me get enough acceptance at this level 1st. So that I can decide a better price or lower price if I've got enough support for now.
3rd Looking at today's trading volume, I really can't understand who is the one who are queueing to sell at RM1.70++ and also who are the one throwing at RM1.70. Do they know what are they doing? Or this is not the retailers who are throwing but an invinsible hand that is throwing the shares to scare everybody off?
Looking at the price now, I still think that the risk of the minority shareholders that their share being taken over is still very big, it will be better off if its trading at RM1.90 or higher.
Too bad that I'm nor rich enough or else I'm going to do the job like what the YNH Property boss did to HLCap. Lol..
Last but not least, the RHB 16.09 cents dividend is on its way. Will the management of OSK reinvest it? or take the cash? It's an interesting question isn't it? If they reinvested in it, thats mean 1 OSK will own more than 0.25 shares of RHB compare to before the reinvestment.
The Winner of the game
1st Tan Sri wins if he able to privatize the company below RM2
2nd Tan Sri wins if he is able to make the deal turn unconditional which means 50%+1 acceptance
3rd Tan Sri lose if he fails to make the deal turns unconditional.
4th Tan Sri lose if he fails to add up more stakes in the company.
5th Minority who knows the value of the company wins as long as the company is not being taken over!
Myth
There are some people saying that the MGO can turns out to be VGO after achieving more than 50% acceptance. Im not sure whether how true is that, but I've consulted some of the colleagues in advisory site, they said that is not possible.
To avoid your shares being taken private, you can
1. Hold tight as its not a junk stock but a deeply undervalue stock.
2. Buy more for yourself as like what I'm doing and ask your friend to buy too!
3. Ask your friends to read this and try to convince them to hold or even buy!
4. By doing so, I believe we will lessen down the supply and increase the demand and I bet that U know whats going to happen next, right?
Disclaimer: I've no intention to push up the share price but giving an independent view on the company itself and no information should be concluded as buy or sell, please consult your personal remisier for your personal investment decision. I will not pay for your losses but I don't mind you to buy me good food if U made money by following my Investment Thoughts. Cheers! Huat ah!
4 comments:
It means Tan Sri needs to sell his stake to make his shareholding below 33% if he fails to get 51% shareholding?
And How is the timeline?
Nope, he don't need to do so. He can remain his 36.7% if he failed to make it unconditional.
Thanks for your reply.
From my understanding, Tan Sri gives mandatory takeover offer due to his aggregate shareholding exceeded threshold 33%. Mandatory takeover for shareholding between 33.1-50% can be exempted upon approval received from SC.
The mandatory will become voluntary takeover offer if Tan Sri has shareholding more than 50%. If he does not get the shareholding more than 50% within the time frame, the takeover will considered failure.
I'm confuse with the word 'mandatory'.
If he fails to raise his stake to more than 50%, does he still mandatory to make another takeover offer? If not whether he will subject to penalty due to non-compliance?
1st. If Im not mistaken, I don't think the offer will turn voluntary if Tan Sri get more than 50%.
2nd Nope, Once it was lapse then he can walk away with his shares without doing anything further. There will be no penalty or any legal action from the authorities.
3rd The mandatory here means that's an action acquire by SC
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