Thursday, May 31, 2018

The KING of CRONIES: The long forgotten Anak Angkat

After the ex-boss party won, a lot of counters related to ex-boss cronies were played up. 
However, BCF saw that there is a crony that have been long forgotten and people call him the 
“Anak Angkat”!

Are u all aware where is Ex-boss 1st meeting after he won the election? 

So why does Tun M go meeting at this Al-Bukhary Foundation to meeting instead of other places? And are you aware who is the owner of this Al-Bukhary Foundation?

Are U aware that the full name of Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar is actually Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary?

According to the website of Al-Bukhary this foundation were set up due to

Inspiring isn’t it? Made RM1.5k in 1974 and now he is 1 top the richest in Malaysia. Massive respect to Tan Sri!  

Now U know who is the Anak Angkat already right? Yes, Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar is the special one. If he is not the “special one” then how could he be the “chosen one” to buy over Tun Dr Mahathir’s brain child PROTON?

So what companies does Anak Angkat has?

According to this website, we can see all the companies own by Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar, we can see that the companies which are listed are as below

Amtek (PN17)

MMC RM1.47
Came back down after moved to as high as RM1.76 on 15/5/2018, affected by the cancellation of HSR and MRT3.

BinarPuri RM0.27
Came back down after moved to as high as RM0.385 on 17/5/2018

DRBHCom RM1.76
This share started to come down from RM2 after the market speculate that they will have to buy back Proton stake from Geely, however, the share price rocket up again after Tun said that he will not interfere on Proton issue.
We should monitor closely whether when will Proton launch Boyue as this might be the game changer for Proton.

POS RM3.70
Share price moved up yesterday

Gas Malaysia RM2.80
Shot up to RM2.98 on 30/5/2018

Malakoff RM0.855
Came down to RM0.855 on 31/5/2018 due to cancellation of MRT3 and also HSR.

Zelan RM0.095
The cheapest counter among Tan Sri listed shares. A construction counter that has yet to move much. It is traded at RM0.095 at the time Big Canon is writing this article. Big Canon believe this could be a trading counter as it is the cheapest stock among Tan Sri and we believe retailers love penny counters. LOL..

However, we would have to reiterate that this counter don’t have solid fundamental and its only meant for trading. Unless there are major change in fundamental or else, its strictly for trading only.

These counters had been out of the limelight in DS Najib time, and will these counters come back into limelight after Tun made a comeback?

We have no idea about that, however, we believe Tan Sri’s counter should be in the watch list for the next 2 to 3 years until Malaysia have the 8th Prime Minister.

May all the HUAT be with us!

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Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. 
All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. 
The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. 
Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Tabung Harapan!

Don't ask what the country can do for U,
Ask what U can do for the country..
Time to do something for the country..

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Monday, May 28, 2018

Standing in the eyes of the world V2018

Category: Macro economics

There are lots of BOMB in Bursa Malaysia lately, a lot of counter got limit down due to their close relationship with the previous government and once again, we are in the lime light of the world. WHY?

1998 was the year where Malaysia hosted Commonwealth Game and still having the repercussion from Asian financial crisis which happened a year earlier. That was a spectacular year where we are “standing in the eyes of the world”, where we did a great job with the commonwealth game as well as the same PM whom had did the pegging towards USD.

In 2018, once again we are standing in the eyes of the world, where Malaysian are brave enough to make changes where the 4th PM made a comeback to be the 7th PM. The former PM get investigated, and there are more and more bad things are uncovered.

To be frank, I believe the things that happened each day are even more interesting than drama. Everyday also got bomb be it from the newly elected govt or MACC or even from the police side.

What worry the most is the statement from “Prosperity God Lim”, from 1MDB to our country’s debt/GDP level which had been rocketing from 55% of previous govt to 65% in 1 day, and another day goes up to 75% and yesterday was 80%.  It’s quick where it gone up by 25% within 2 weeks after Ex-boss taking over the country. How BCF wish this could happen to all the share price or KLCI.

Actually, according to international standard, and according to our ex-finance minister, its actually at 50.8%, and it will only become 80% when u assume that the govt will have to pay for all the contingent liability and off balance sheet item.

There are a lot of voices out there saying our prosperity god has yet to change his mentality from opposition to the govt mind-set and it is not right to lump everything together and contingent liability into debt ratio and announce bad things to whole world. Well, BCF have no say on that, however, BCF would like to see things from another perspective.

We believe Prosperity god did it for a reason:

1.      In the past, when “prosperity god Lim” is still “Tokong Lim”, his party and coalition always say that Malaysia is going to bankrupt, and what he do now had proven what they “have” been saying were true.

2.      Transparency, which is part of CAT (Credibility, accountability and transparency). BCF thinks that a transparent govt will always create more confident to the nation as well as investor.

3.      Its more to psychology where once u got up, u have to tell the world how worst it is 1st then only u start to work and improve from there. Then whole world will think and believe that u are doing a good job and u got credit for that.

 Anyway, what’s the down side of it?

1.      After revealing all these numbers, KLCI take a nosedive by 70 points as foreign investor keep selling their shares, as they tend to avoid further bombing from some unexpected news. This had causes a lot of stock in Bursa fell into drain.

2.      Attract the rating agency to reduce country sovereign rating, this might causes lots of havoc such as depreciation in RM and also sell down in bond market. Create more panic selling and selling pressure.

3.      Confident of the investor diminished. That’s y u see the sentiment of Bursa Malaysia turn bad and a lot of stock had been bleeding profusely. Kesian to small investors like us, day day kena bomb.

Anyway, it’s good for prosperity god to clarify each item and gave us a clearer picture at the end of day and this help clear the air and avoid calamity. 

So what do Big Canon think?
BCF do believe that it is good for the govt to be transparent, and after announcing all the down side and all those dirt, so that we can go worst 1st and make a comeback later.  

For investor like us, it wasn’t really a bad thing at all. What being done now could be something good for us instead, because the bad news will help us to battered the index and the market. After all the bad news are out, what more bad news do we have? If there are no more bad news, then that means it’s a good news and it will help the market to go back up! So, its good for us to have all those bad news come out 1st, so that we can find a bottom and safe for investor like us and get something good and cheap. So it’s equal to having tax holiday and promotion in stock market right now.  

We sound like we are very optimistic isn’t it? Well, there are some risk that our readers shall an eye with.

RISK within Malaysia:
1.      Continuous sell off from foreign investors
2.      Sovereign credit rating to get downgraded
3.      Delay of Mega project or suspension
4.      Quarter result bomb

Global RISK which might affect our market.
1.      Tumble of crude oil price
2.      Relationship between Crazy Trump and Fatty Kim
3.      US treasury yield
4.      European Union especially Italy political glut
5.      Rising bond yield for Emerging country (Argentina and Turkey)
6.      World Cup

BCF know, there are so many things to look out and to be aware of, but that doesn’t mean that we should give up and stop looking for stocks that is potential as well as opportunities. Investment is a whole life thing that we shall never stop and the only way to be successful is non-stop learning.

Happy Wesak day to those who are celebrating and happy holiday to others!

May all the HUAT be with us! 

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Monday, May 21, 2018

What’s down under Tun Daim’s sleeve? QE in Malaysia?

After the victory of Ex-boss party, we saw that a lot of ex-boss friend had jump out to help the country and we have got 1 of the most respected Robert Kuok coming back this week to attend the “Eminent council meeting”.

Its surprising isn’t it? However, the thing that we want to discuss today is not about Mr Robert Kuok but Tun Daim.

Tun Daim is good especially in Economics, Entrepreneur as well as politic. Of course, BCF is nowhere near Tun Daim, but what BCF is writing today is just to analyse the latest step taken by Tun Daim.

As we are all well aware, Ex-boss party’s manifesto is to abolish GST. BCF believe it would have to go through a lot of hassle in order to abolish it and it wouldn’t be able to settle within 100 days, hence the fastest way to do it is to revise it to 0%. As a result, MoF came out with their official statement which is to revised down the rate to 0% starting from 1st of June.

Of course, this had causes a lot of havoc where the business owner will complain whether how about them whom had paid GST for their stocks? Well, BCF can’t really comment much about this as we will need to wait for further instruction from the new government.

2 days later after the announcement from MoF, Tun Daim had also announced that the SST will be introduced 2 to 3 months later as this will need to go through the parliament.

This also mean that we are going to have a Tax Holiday! Woohoo! So what does that mean to consumer? As soon as the govt announced GST to 0%, we saw that a few of the car dealers came out with their GST free promotion for this Ramadhan. The discount range from few k to 70k which had attracted a lot of interest around me.

So what can you see? Other than car, BCF believe a lot of big tix item might be facing the same case as well (if the seller willing to do the same) and we saw that Courts have come out with this 6% off for everything in their website. If this were to happen, those consumer might start to buy these things again as the discount is too tempting!

What does that mean if the people around you started to spend on big tickets item again? This means that the economy started to move again. Why is it important? This is because the definition of good or bad economy is depends on the velocity of money turnover, when u have money come in then u will feel rich and then you will spend when the speed increase then you will feel good. This had help to stop the vicious cycle and clear the overhand which helps to start the positive cycle. Hence this is the 1st benefit of having tax holiday. 

So what’s the 2nd benefit?
According to our LHDN, RM44b revenue were generated from GST in year 2017.

Assuming that the revenue were generated equally in each month, hence RM44b divide by 12 = RM3.67b.
This mean that if the government stop collecting GST for 1 month, then there will be RM3.67b remain in the pocket of consumer. If 2 months then it would be RM7.33b, and if 3 months then it would be around RM11b.

On the other hand, Tun Daim also mentioned that the government expect that they will collect RM30b from SST annually. This would work out to be RM2.5b every month.

Assuming that we have a tax holiday for 3 months which will last until end of August and SST will start on September. As a result of lower tax collection from SST compare to GST, this mean that RM1.17b per month will be in the pocket of consumer, and this will be the same for that 4 months. As a result, RM1.17b*4= RM4.68b

The tax not collected of RM11b and RM4.68b adds up to RM15.68b. We understand that even though the consumer may necessarily spend all this RM15.68b, but it definitely create a situation where consumer feel that they spending lesser and have something left in their pocket compare to current situation.

This can also be called as ECONOMY STIMULATION or QE from the government! This can help to stimulate the internal demand of the country. On the other hand, the effect of this RM15.68b is even greater than RM15.68b, why? This is because of the multiplier effect!

Let’s get back to Economics 101
For those who studied Economics before, you will surely remember a formula of C+I+G+NX = GDP.
C = consumption
I = Investment
G= Government spending
Nx = Export – Import.

In our current situation, we saw that the Mega project will get review, let’s assume that it is on hold for review. This would mean a huge reduction in Government spending and this will affect the GDP Growth.

In order to reduce the impact of reducing government spending, what Tun Daim and his team did is to boost the consumption with that RM15.68b in order to lower the impact of Government spending. This shows that Tun Daim and his team are really good in Fiscal policy and they really know how to use this policy to boost the economy, no words but only respect to Tun and his team!

Other than GDP, what will get affected? As we mentioned above, we believe big ticket items that is subject to GST such as electronic goods, Car are likely to get cheaper and this could stimulate consumption. As a result, those counters that are selling these item could be the winner of this move, and consumer counters will be the beneficiary.


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Sunday, May 20, 2018

BIG CANON Finance is back!

A big thank you to our followers and hope you are doing great and Huat always.

To recap, we started our blog in 2011 and it has been 6 years plus. There are ups and down and even stop blogging for quite some time due to conflict of interest as we were working for an investment education platform.

You can check our blog at this site:
We started to write and share our analysis again early this year after we done serving our clause.
Recently, the unexpected change of government had created a very special scenario which we never had in the past 60 years. This had also created an opportunity to do trading on those political stocks. However, we believe this is just an opportunity that wouldn’t last for too long.

However, the change of government not only giving an opportunity but it had also given us the chance to be in spotlight again! Why? Because our Like on FB had finally reached 3900 and the best part is an increase of 1144 new Likes within a week.

Other than this, our post had also reached a peak of 51k and some with 46.7k and all this were done without paying FB a single cent. (Sounds like a cheapskate). However, we are a bit sad as these readers didn’t Like our page, we hope you could kindly share our post and ask more people to Like our page and join our telegram for latest info by clicking the link below:

To all the old followers, thanks for being with us throughout the years although we giving out a lot of Tix to Holland XD.

To all the new followers, Thanks a lot for your kind support! This meant a lot to us and we promise we will do better by providing you the most accurate information and our investment thoughts! However, please do also filter yourself either, because Big Canon might be wrong most of the time. In order to reduce the numbers of Holland trip.

So what’s Big Canon Finance STRENGTH?

After 18 fine years (1st 3 years only study financial news and started to buy stock in form 5 and Thanks GOD! BCF is still alive!) in the market with ups and down, we are now equipped with the skill below:
1st BCF know a little bit of Technical analysis but BCF is not a guru in this, however, this is a very good way for retailers to roll their money bigger in a short period.

2nd BCF know a little of Fundamental analysis but BCF is also not a guru in this, and this helps doing long term investing.

3rd Business sense investing.
BCF read a lot in the past and add up with some economic knowledge hence he also know a bit of business as the root of it is supply and demand.

4th Theme analysis trading.
BCF also know a little bit of this and BCF believe this had created a great chance for traders to do trading.

5th Economics matter. Investment is a very tricky thing where economy is something you shouldn’t omit.

6th Global event which will affect the sentiment.

7th Corporate exercise. BCF also know a bit of this and he love this the most! He had a lot of success stories in this field which U can check their track record.

In conclusion, BCF is more to a Fusion analysis guy whom is able to trade or invest flexibly. It sounds easy, however the workload to carry out is humongous. As a result, it will take a lot of time for us to do researches and to write it down either. Hence, sometimes we might be a little late on posting some stories.

This is because we need to make sure everything being written is true and is fact as this really matter in investment world, we don’t tolerate with errors. On the other hand, we will post the link and sources for readers to make verifications to make sure everything is accurate.

Can BCF post their thoughts every day?
The reason BCF started investment idea blog is because his ambition of becoming a research analyst was turned down by reality. As a result, BCF is doing this on part time basis. As BCF still have to serve his current job and pay for bills, hence, it’s a bit hard for him to write all the time and post every day. However, BCF will try his best to squeeze some time to write about our thoughts.

Will BCF start a paid group or start teaching?
There are some readers that proposed this idea to us, however, we are still in serious consideration. We believe this is not an easy job as we need to be responsible to our readers and need to be fair. We wouldn’t say yes or no at the meantime, but we do hope our sharing will be able to benefit you and your friends.

We don’t ask for any monetary return but we do have 2 requests from you all which is helping BCF to share my post on your wall and forward it to your friends as well as joining our telegram! This will be the best way to motivate BCF to write more! We hope to help more people especially retailers to thrive in this market!

The 2nd request would be, if you manage to make money from our sharing, you can also do donation to those needy like old folks home, orphanage, and those whom fall sick too! We believe if you do good thing, then the good Karma will come back to u! Let’s create a better environment to live! But do also remember, BCF is a HOLLAND Kaki ya!

OK, BCF believe its too lengthy for a weekend reading and its best for us to stop here.


Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Let’s prepare for ELECTION!

EC had finally announced the election date which held on 9th May. Almost everyone around us had gear up for the election where most of the post in FB is regarding election.. So what does BCF think?

As an investor, we need to be alert with what’s happening around us but not being sway by the crowd. Most importantly, we have to be NEUTRAL all the time when it comes to investment.

As a result, we will have to be well prepared for all sorts of outcome and reap the most benefit from this election instead of joining the crowd to quarrel whether which party is better.

So 1st thing to do before reading further is to be NEUTRAL…
Basically there are 3 major contestant:
1.      Boss Party
2.      Ex Boss is back to kick some ass Party
3.      Moonlight party

So which party do U think will win? Well, BCF believe that Party 1 and Party 2 stand a great chance, however, do not look down at Moonlight party, cause they can come n kacau at all places.. which will causes a split in vote that affect the results.. and we cannot underestimate their die hard supporters’ ability…

So… after taking out the possibility of Moonlight party to be the Govt, now we left with 2 parties… basically we can see lots of supporter for Ex-Boss party and there are lots of big waves saying this and that as well as Tsunami..

Anyway, we are not here to promote any party.. BCF just wanted to find some pocket money from the result of GE… hence..

Actually, our market were well supported above 1800 by our national team, and thanks to them, our index are not badly affected by the trade war. However, 2nd and 3rd liners are not that lucky where they are badly battered…

So let’s see what if…
1st candidate won the election… What will be the reaction?
Scenario 1.. by looking back at the election on 2013, I can still remember that lots of my friends are supporting the opposition, and more and more for this round. My friends were confident that the opposition will win the election and they sold all their shares as well as short sell the index.

However, the previous election was won by Boss Party and the index gap up almost 100 points on the 2nd day. As a result, all the shortist got shock as well as the dealers too.. because this is the very 1st time that the account holders lose all their deposits in a millisecond, and they still have to top up around 10k+ per contract. The chart below shows the performance of KLCI after election.
Can u feel the shortist now?
Will History repeat again? I believe those investors that are holding shares might be quite hard to make decision whether to pray for stock market to rocket or pray for Ex-Boss party.

BCF believe that if the global trade war settle down before election then its quite possible that we can have post-election rally. Of course, we hope the 2nd and 3rd liners can perform like how it does in 2013 so that we can catch some fishes.
Why do we think that there will be a post-election rally? This is because a lot of investor as well as institutional investors are risk averse where they will try to avoid election risk. As a result, they will sell prior to election and buy back after the dust settled. Hence, it is possible for them to re-enter the market after the election. Anyway, this will still depends on the global sentiment by that time, things won’t happen if global market are crashing. 

Scenario 2
Anyway, we can’t be too optimistic as well because China and US still not settle with their trade war and we need their permission to let our stock flyyyyyyyyyyyyy! So we have to pray hard that they grant us the permission to fly!

Scenario 3
Post-Election rally might not happen and we will need national team to support the index!

Anddddd the following will be.. What will happen to the stock market if Ex-boss come back to kick some ASS party wins! I know, that’s what most of the readers love the most, however, Im just analysing what I think is true… pls don’t throw egg or rotten tomato to us.. we welcome u to throw us money.. I repeat, money only…

Scenario 1
Previously, there is a party led by CD says that, we want stability! Well, he is right because there will be lots of uncertainties. On the other hand, the Ex boss said that he would review the investment from China, this is not a bad thing however, this would causes fear between foreign investors. This uncertainty is what foreign investors fear the most, and they will not pour money in until everything is settled. As a result, there will not be any post-election rally, and we have to be grateful if the index manage to stabilise above 1800 points..

Some Ex-boss supporters will say that, then it’s the best time to short market! Well, we would not deny that, and u might be able to make big money from that. However, we would like to remind u the lesson in 2013 and please manage ur risk, or else, its not only the party u love will lose but u might get double kill as well!

Scenario 2
There is another possibility where the index rocket after Ex-boss party won the election which almost alike Trump’s case and index hit historical high. However, this would be the best case scenario for Ex-boss’s supporter, but we believe the possibility of it happening is quite low.

After all, we would like to clarify that we are not bias or taking side towards any party, but we are here to see what might happen next and be prepare for what’s going to happen soon. Most importantly, we can be the real winner for the election instead of those political party.
What’s your take after seeing all the possibilities? What will be your strategy? Every strategies have its risk, hence, Big Canon would like to remind you to control your risk.

We will share with our readers whether what stock to monitor base on the possible outcome.

Big Canon need your support to motivate us, hence, do help us to Like and share our article. Thanks and happy investing.

May all the HUAT be with us!


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