Saturday, October 17, 2015

Valuecap: Our Strategy to benefit from Valuecap

Toll hike, Weak Ringgit, Rising Living expenses, with all the negative news around us everyday and life is getting tougher, but lets not drag down by the negative energy. As being thought by my Sifu, where I will quote his statement here " Don't complaint, buy shares!" 

The logic behind this is stop nagging and look for the shares that will get benefit from the hike and invest in it to get back your money. For an example, you can always buy "Highway Stock" when there is a rate hike as this willl boost the profit of such company and of course you will get good dividend from it. 

Today we are going to share u "tips" to benefit from Valuecap.


As FBMKLCI is now already above 1700, is Valuecap still relevant to support the market??? Looking at the situation, Valuecap is not relevant to support the market anymore as the index is now back above 1700 but we believe that Valuecap will still deploy money into the market as our PM need this to make sure the market players are confident again and also making sure that his word count as he is now at the most dangerous time of his political career. In order to secure his position, he will have to do something to make sure the cronies are happy or else the cronies might turn their back on him. So what will he do? we assume the state fund will buy up some of the cronies stock to provide a good chance for them to cash out from most of their current investment. 

Let’s not discuss whether is this a good move to the nation and the rakyat as we can’t change this fact, hence let’s look for a solution that will benefit U & ME. 

This is the jizz of "No complain, buy stocks!"


As a player in the market and also an opportunist, what shall we do and aim to make sure  we will be benefit from the action that will be taken by the government?

It’s actually quite easy to answer this question
1st We look for the shares that being perceived as the cronies counter.
2nd Make sure when can Valuecap start to buy.
3rd After making sure of the date, buy before Valuecap especially when the share retraced.
4th Sell the shares to Valuecap together with the cronies with handsome profit
5th Wait for the market to fall and REPEAT!

So for the 1st question, what’s the cronies stocks that we shall look at?

1st FGV
As we mentioned last week, Felda Global Ventures (FGV) is something that we should look at it seriously. As we all know, this company was initiated by our 2nd PM Tun Razak where his son whom is the current PM had continue his good work by listing the company in year 2012.  

Other than being a brainchild of our current PM’s family, we should also be aware that there are more than 55 Parliament seats are under FGV’s settlers. This mean there are about 55 or over Parliament seat will be in danger if FGV is not performing. As Malaysia Parliament were formed by 222 parliament seats, hence 55 is equal to almost a quarter or 24.77% of the parliament. 

So what will U do if U are in our PM’s position? 
Will U use Valuecap to “invest” in FGV in order to secure your position? I will definitely do that.

2nd UEMS
UEMS, were well known as a GLC since the Tun M’s era. This is a counter that have lots of land in Johor where lots of Parliament seats are under this area, as we saw tension are growing in that state especially after sacking the DPM and also the relationship with the Sultan’s family. We believe Johor related counters such as UEMS and KUB might be also one of the target for Valuecap to buy in, as this is to create a cash out platform in order to exchange for political support.

3rd MRCB
MRCB were not doing very well previously due to the previous management, however this is also a traditional GLC link stock that shouldn’t be forget.

4th SEACERA (7073)
This was not being well known as a political related stock as the past. However, we would like to highlight this stock as it had started to move and rose in May 2014 where there were news reported saying the company had submit proposal to build electric fence at the border of Thailand and Malaysia and also submitted tender to be part of the builder for Menara Warisan. The stock price had shot up after then where the highest is RM1.33. 

The core business of the company was selling ceramic tiles and have moved in to property development but there were some undisclosed news saying they are closed to the most powerful man in Malaysia and went to some of the business trip together, hence they are able to submit proposal for these 2 big projects.



The share price had moved to RM1.33 of its highest and there are speculations saying that the electric fence project might get a go on this coming budget. (I’m not sure how true is this piece of market talk or so call rumors or whether how reliable it is as there are always lots of so called news in the market, but the share price had moved recently hence this piece of rumors could be true.) We believe the stock may challenge RM1 IF this piece of news is true and RM1.33 the previous high might be in target.

I think this might be the best to play as the share capital of the stock is small and its cheap compare to the others. Its good for small fish like me as this stock offer a chance of small bet but big gain. 

5th MHB
MHB a share that was traded as high as RM8.82 and is now traded RM1.10. The share is a subsidiary of Petronas where the share price came down as project were not given to this company, however, we believe this company might be a good play for the cronies to get cash by moving it up.

*Pls like our FB page and turn on the notification from our page as we will keep u updated on the latest Cronies stock that will be on target once we found it.

2nd Question

After having 5 stocks to monitor on top, let’s move on to the 2nd question. When can Valuecap start to buy?

In the previous article, we saw that Valuecap were being given aggressive dateline on 15 October to start purchasing, but the person in charge think its hard as they have regulatory steps and approvals from the shareholders hence he think Valuecap will only be ready by 2nd half of November. So is telling us, we still have 1 month to mop up the shares before Valuecap.


However, we saw some very special situation on last Friday which is 16th October.
FGV were closed 5 bids higher as there are someone who came in to the market to mop up all the shares available. We can see that there are 10,000 lots or 1,000,000 units of shares which worth around RM1.74 million were being mop up last minute. Who could that possibly be? It wouldn’t be small fish like me, could that possibly be Valuecap? Or maybe the insider? Well, we will stop to speculate here but we believe this might be some insider. Looking at such a situation, we believe FGV might have a chance to touch RM2 in 3 months’ time.


Other than FGV, we did also saw UEMS had big fish “Makan” in the last 15 minutes which turn the share price from red to green.


PMetal, another stock that got the same thing like UEMS.


MRCB which is also have big makan at the last 15 minutes.

Seacera, started to move from the noon, however, all the available stock were mopped up by somebody at 4.50pm which u see in the blue box. This might be the insider? If it is really insider then we believe it wouldn’t be hard for the share to move to RM1 and above.

Though this big “makan” at the last 15 minutes wasn’t able to justify whether the Valuecap has enter the market yet, however, this big “makan” indicate something.

We also wouldn’t rule out that this big “makan” might be related to the Budget that will be announcing on 23rd October. If this is really related to budget then we might see these shares continue to move on this Monday onwards until the good news is out. 

*Pls like our FB page and turn on the notification from our page as we will keep u updated on the latest Cronies stock that will be on target once we found it.

3rd Step

If the big “makan” above is not from Valuecap but insider, then we may follow the insiders to play until before the budget out. Hence we might have half month more to collect these shares and sell it to Valuecap on the 2nd half of November.

4th 

Sell the shares to Valuecap together with the cronies with handsome profit.

5th

Wait for the market to fall and REPEAT!


RISK!

It looks like a good plan isn’t it? But wait! Never forget about the risk too!

1st the largest risk of this strategy is our PM’s budget might get rejected due to the rebellion and also the non-confident vote from the opposition, these might causes Valuecap to stop its action, however, this is not the end as we are able to manage the risk. How?

Manage Risk, how?

The budget will be announcing on 23rd October which is on Friday, hence we could still participate in those stocks on Monday and sell it before the Friday closing. This is because the stock will still move before the announcement and they will only vote after our PM finish his budget proposal. Hence, the market will only react on the next Monday if there is a vote of no passing the proposal.

On the other hand, readers shall not forget the most important principal which is "buy on rumours and sell on news. Its important to take profit after the news are out!

*Pls like our FB page and turn on the notification from our page as we will keep u updated on the latest Cronies stock that will be on target once we found it.



We think the strategy above should be good for our readers to make some handsome gain, however, the strategy will need ur trading skill to make sure u r able to make money too and trading skill is something that we couldn't share here as it is very tedious. 

We have shared our best and all the things we know, however, we wouldn’t be 100% confirm about all the news that we get are 100% reliable. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE LIVING IN OUR BELOVED MALAYSIA and things get to change quickly, Valuecap might move in earlier or later or maybe even not in November though it was already reported in newspaper that they will be in on 2nd half of November.



Once again, we would like to reiterate again that this blog is here to help out our readers and try to let them make some handsome gain from this volatile market.

May all the Huat be with us. Huat ah! 

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions

2 comments:

Simon Chong said...

What a great info. I LIKE!

akaz said...

Wah!!!!FGV, still cannot sell high to Valuecap.

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