This is a place for a "road side analyst" to share his view about the Macro and Micro as well as some stock pick and outlook.. I Seldom write but when I write I will make it right and make it count!
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Change
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Are u a SUPER INVESTOR???
Can you become a super investor?
by Koon Yew Yin
Many investment psychologists do not think an adult can master all the following 7 traits if he does not have them in his genes or learned them when he was young and become a super investor, like Warren Buffet.
I started serious investing in public listed shares when I retired from executive work with IJM Corporation Bhd in 1983 at the age of 50 years. I was not an accountant nor have I a MBA degree. I was just a civil engineer and I hardly knew how to read a balance sheet at that time.
I started by reading to understand the basic fundamental principles of share selection as practiced by Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch and other great investment gurus.
Trait 1: Be a contrarian investor, the ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric. In 1983 when China declared that they wanted to take back Hong Kong, the people were selling as if there was no tomorrow because the Communists were coming. The Hang Seng Index plunged to about 700. Currently it is around 18,500.
In such a situation at that time, would you buy Hong Kong Shares?
I use all the money I had and I bought H.K. Realty and Trusts at $ 3.60. Its price was $13.60 before the crash. When the former British Prime Minister Margret Thatcher went to Beijing to negotiate the sovereignty of Hong Kong, Beijing rejected the appeal and the stock market plunged further. I bought more H.K. Realty at $ 3.00 with margin finance. Most investors would not buy and they would say that I was mad to try to catch a falling knife. This was the most agonising period when HSBC was selling below $ 7.00.
After several months of negotiation, Beijing granted another 50 years extension of capitalist system. The market rebounded immediately and H.K. Realty & Trust went rapidly back to $13.60. As the value of my holding went up, I bought more and more shares with increasing margin. In 1986, I even bought 47% of a stock broking company, called Kaiser Stocks and Shares Ltd. How I took advantage of the rising trend is history.
Trait 2: Obsession in playing the game and wanting to win. These people don’t just enjoy investing; they live it. They wake up in the morning and the first thing they think about, while they are still half asleep, is a stock they have been researching. They are thinking about selling, or what the greatest risk to their portfolio is and how they are going to neutralize that risk. They are obsessed in enhancing the value of their holdings and they have very few friends.
Trait 3: The willingness to learn from past mistakes. Most people would much rather just move on and ignore the dumb things they’ve done in the past. I believe the term for this is repression.” But if you ignore mistakes without fully analyzing them, you will undoubtedly make a similar mistake later in your career.
Trait 4: An inherent sense of risk based on common sense. Most people believe analysts’ reports which are often ‘a buy’ recommendation. It is very seldom they recommend ‘a sell’ because they would lose the business from the company he has recommended ‘a sell’. You must always take any analyst report with a pinch of salt. I believe the greatest risk control is common sense which is not so common sometimes.
Trait 5: Confidence: Great investors must have confidence in their own convictions and stick with them, even when facing criticism. Buffett never got into the dot-com mania though he was being criticized publicly for ignoring technology stocks. He stuck to his guns when everyone else was abandoning the value investing ship. He was proven right when the dot com bubble bust.
Trait 6: Clear thinking. When considering a share, you must try to understand the nature of the company’s business and its inherent difficulties so that you can evaluate your risk exposure. There are a lot of people who have genius IQs who cannot think clearly, though they can figure out bond or option pricing in their heads.
Trait 7: And finally the most important, and rarest, trait of all: The ability to live through volatility without changing your investment thought process. This is almost impossible for most people to do. When the market makes a severe correction, most people dare not buy more shares to average down or to put any money into stocks at all when the market is plunging. People do not like short term pain even if it would result in better long-term results. Very few investors can handle the volatility required for high portfolio returns. They equate short-term volatility with risk. This is irrational; risk means that if you are wrong about a bet you make, you lose money. A swing up or down over a relatively short time period is not a loss and therefore not risk, unless you are prone to panicking at the bottom and locking in the loss. But most people just cannot see it that way; their brains won’t let them. Their panic instinct steps in and shuts down the normal brain function.
Many investment psychologists do not think an adult can master all the above 7 traits if he does not already have them in his genes or learned them when he was young.
By that time, your potential to be an outstanding investor later in life has already been determined. It can be improved, but not developed from scratch because it mostly has to do with the way your brain is wired and experiences you have as a child. That does not mean financial education and investing experience are not important. Those are critical just to get into the game and keep playing. If you cannot become a super investor, you would still earn more than the average earning of most people.
I'm BACK!!!
I know it's a little bit too late but no choice, I was too busy with all the jobs on my hand.
I really gotta think properly whether to stay or to leave? Staying might give me good bonus but have no life, doing things that I don't feels like doing.
Leave? Might join the dealer team and might start my own business by having more personal time. Sigh.. How to choose?
Wish me luck guys!
Monday, December 26, 2011
还原五一三真相第二章:《流血冲突的背后阴谋》(整理版)
昨天晚上,我在《正义之声》很忠实的,将大马官方对五一
认真地说,暴动只在吉隆坡一带发生而已,虽然后来蔓延到
再说到当时的主角人物哈仑在1999年10月,回应时任
但是后来官方的说法却是由于马来人的经济过于落后,与华
学者考证之后得出的结论是:五一三事件无关种族经济不平
据老一辈的吉兰丹华人回忆说,五一三吉隆坡传出华人被大
既非族群贫富悬殊而引发五一三,又不是族群冲突造成的根
http://
国父东姑在他的回忆录中,提到五一三事件的时候,曾经这
先说敦拉萨。
http://
他是当时的副首相,东姑下台,他是最大的受益者。在五一
敦拉萨通过NOC 宣布搁置国会及州议会,暂停尚未完成的东马地区之普选,
当年虽然军队与警方成员绝大多数是马来人,但是其中也有
第二个要讨论的,是马哈迪。
http://
马哈迪是当时的巫统最高理事会成员,1969年在吉打州
在五一三事件发生过后第四天,马哈迪写了一封公开信给东
东姑与1970年国庆日过后不久正式下台,1972年,
第三个要说的,是慕沙希淡。
http://
慕沙希淡是敦拉萨的政治秘书,是敦拉萨的亲信,在倒东姑
但在敦拉萨上台之后,慕沙立刻重返内阁,出任正部长;当
第四个要说的,是拿督哈伦。
http://
哈伦在1969年大选之前,已经是雪兰莪州务大臣。69
为了保卫联盟雪兰莪州政权,哈伦决定兵行险着;他号召马
当从文良港传来《马来人被华人屠杀,死了很多人》的谣言
除了昨天说到的那两位牛头党的印籍人士,因为刚巧在哈伦
哈伦基本上并不是敦拉萨派系,但是他在巫青团的影响力很
所以,引发五一三事件的罪魁祸首是谁?答案已经昭然若揭
引发五一三事件(请大家要看的清楚,我不愿意用种族事件
其一:这是由于巫统党内斗争,有人想通过舆论打击东姑阿
其二:这是由于当时全国大选投票结果显示,联盟政府已经
其三:这也是一场联盟政府为了保卫雪兰莪州政权而刻意鼓
总的来说,五一三惨剧之所以会发生,始作俑者,就是当时
当年的华社,由于华文教育问题,跟马华几乎翻脸成仇;教
因为华教问题,马华陈修信、陈东海和梁宇皋从此也被华社
1969年5月10日全国大选,次日投票结果出炉,马华
在霹雳,霹雳华裔选民也宁愿将选票投给民主行动党和人民
人民进步党在霹雳州取得5个国会议席和11个州会议席。
当年马华公会惨败以后,宣布要退出国阵(当时是联盟),
蔡细历的意思是想借此恐吓华裔选民如果支持反对党,就会
很多反对党成员在恶法下被捕,甚至被杀害,这是引发国民
联盟在大选中失利以后,马华公会马上以“人民不需要他们
借着,又由时任马来西亚中华工商总会总秘书的陈东海(都
从此以后,马华公会便配合执政联盟的脚步,一步一步的平
而当时的马华公会,并没有对执政联盟做出非议,更没有在
建国54年以后的今天,巫统以及马华仍旧在利用五一三事
究竟马华公会这几十年在国阵政府以及内阁中扮演了什么样
换成在过去,别说马华公会这样的规模,就算只是沙劳越当
算了吧!送更多的马华公会议员进入国会,最多不就是制造
308之前,马华公会在国会内有多少名议员?有多少名正
事实不会永远的被掩盖,它总有浮出水面的一天,这也就是
今晚的开讲,就到此结束,谢谢大家捧场。
明天同样时间,《还原五一三真相最终章:人在屠杀现场的
各位朋友,晚安,再会。
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Safety precaution during flood!
As a result, I think the article that I came across here is quite useful for us! I know it's quite lenghty but Please read for ur own safety!
Before the Flood
The Malaysian Meteorological Department in its website, issued a warning following heavy downpours in several areas, especially in the southern states of the peninsular.
In Johor, areas such as the Ledang, Muar, Batu Pahat and Segamat district may experience intermittent rain occasionally moderate until 24th December 2011 that may cause flash floods in low-lying areas.
Intermittent rain occasionally moderate may occur over states of Pahang (Pekan and Rompin Districts) and Johor (Johor Bahru, Kulaijaya, Pontian, Kota Tinggi, Kluang and Mersing Districts) and is expected to continue until 27th December 2011. This condition may cause floods over low-lying areas.
For those affected by the flood, you can take actions before, during and after a flood to protect your family and keep your property losses to a minimum. Also, please report to your respective BCM coordinators and update them from time to time on the progress of the floods.
Stay Alert! Always listen to the flash flood announcements from the radio, TV or "Bilik Gerakan Majlis Keselamatan Negeri (MKN)" local council for the latest information and evacuation instruction on worsening weather conditions that can cause flooding in your area.
Avoid unecessary travel during severe weather. Poor visibility can make trips dangerous. Always ensure children's safety by not allowing them to play near swollen creeks, storm drains or culverts.
During the Flood
Do not go near creeks and low-water crossings. Beware of rising, swift-moving water. man-made features such as storm drains, fences and culverts create additional "strainers" that can drown even the strongest of swimmers.
If you see major obstructions such as uprooted trees, telephone or electrical poles in a creek or if you see a blocked culvert or bridge opening, immediately call 999 for assistance.
If your house is flooded, immediately turn off all utilities at the main power switch and close the main gas valve if evacuation is necessary and move to a safer area. e.g. to the first floor or top balcony.
Evacuate your house if instructed to do so. Follow emergency instructions. It is much safer and easier to evacuate before flood waters become too deep.
If time permits, move valuables, such as important documents, jewelry and clothing to upper floors or higher elevations.
Do not go near downed power lines and electrical wires. Electrocution is another major source of deaths in floods.
Refrain from driving or walking into water that is flowing across low water crossings, bridges, or roadways. If you come across a flooded road, turn around and go another way. Heed all warnings and street barricades set up by the authorities.
After the Flood
Document the extent of the damage by taking colour photographs or video of any damage resulting from the flood.
Before entering a flooded building, check for signs of structural damage. Don't go in if there are any signs of the building collapsing.
Do not use matches, cigarette lighters or any other open flames, since gas may be trapped inside. Instead, use a flashlight to light your way.
Keep power off until an electrician has inspected your system for safety.
Until local authorities proclaim your water supply to be safe, boil water for drinking and food preparation. Water should be boiled vigorously for five minutes before using.
Flood waters pick up sewage and chemicals from roads, farms, and factories. If your home has been flooded, protect your family's health by cleaning up your house right away. Throw out foods and medicines that may have come into contact with flood water as they are unsafe to consume.
Be careful when walking around. After a flood, steps and floors are often slippery with mud and covered with debris, including sharp objects and broken glasses.
May u be safe! Cheers!
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