Stay VIGILANT!

US Market has been doing well last week, however, its always important to stay cautious. 

Stay VIGILANT!

DJIA 

DJI closed higher over the week where it bounce back above the resistant of the thick blue line and manage to stay above it. This had cancel off the bearish signal as well as cancel off the perfect setting for short sellers. Looking at the daily chart, it seems like it has yet to choose its direction.

Something important and need to monitor closely is that the index has to stay above the thick blue line to remain bullishness. Falling below it will cancel off the up trending pace, and might turn out to be a short selling point. Another point to note is the gap up on 18/5, sealing the gap will too cancel the gap up bullish effect.

Support: 1. 24242             2. 24059              3. 24000

Resistant: 1. 24598          2. 24805              3. 25192

 

DJI Weekly

For the weekly chart, the candle shows that it is now back above the crucial thick blue supporting line and something worth noting is that the candle had finally close at recent high. Its important to monitor if the candle could stay above the thick blue supporting line in order to remain its uptrend. 

SP500

SP500 is showing resilient by closing at its highest since the tumble in March. SP500 gap up and break the resistant of the thick blue line and manage to trend higher and break the resistant of the 61.8% Fibo retracement follow by the monthly line 2944 and close above all these 3 resistant.

It is important for SP500 to stay above all these support in order to remain bullish.

Support: 1. 2944               2. 2935                 3. 2912

Resistant: 1. 2978             2. 3000                 3. 3100

SP500 Weekly

SP500 weekly chart looks good where it finally break the resistant of 61.8% and monthly resistant of 2944. However, the candle shows that there are strong selling pressure on top of the resistant level. Something important to monitor is that SP500 will have to stay above the thick blue line in order to remain bullishness.

Nasdaq 

Nasdaq too doing well this week where it gap up and break the resistant on 78.6% and manage to stay above it. Something quite fun to see is that the index had challenge the red line resistant again and fail to break it, this shows that the red line resistant is really a very strong resistant with lots of selling pressure. It is also worth noting that Nasdaq is now just 500 points away from its peak.

Though we are near to the peak, something important to monitor is that can the index stay above the 78.6 retracement level and the gap up bullish signal. This is important indicator to show that Nasdaq is still strong.

Support: 1. 9168               2. 9007                 3. 8903

Resistant: 1. 9382             2. 9400 (red line)               3. 9576

Nasdaq Weekly

We can see that it’s a V shape for Nasdaq and it closed highest since March, this is a very strong chart. However, the steepness of the chart is impressive, but please don’t get carry away and always be cautious on any possible turn.

Disclaimer: The materials shown above is just for education purposes. No buy or sell calls are intended. Please consult your brokers for investment decisions. The author above will not be responsible for any trading decision and action taken by the readers.  

Bullish FBMKLCI! 1500 coming?

FBMKLCI had been very strong for the week where the blue chips taking turn to charge the index higher. Looking at the chart, it had break the red resistant line, 50% Fibo retracement and today it finally break the resistant of recent high. This had also seal the gap down 12 March.

FBMKLCI is now 15 points away from bull market. which the lowest is 1207, 20% hike is 1450. 

The chart is pretty bullish which we believe 1500 or 1550 could be the possible point that we might reach soon, provided US market don’t collapse.

Looking at the chart, its important for the index to not fall below the Fibo 50% resistant, and the red line (from resistant to supporting). If it drops below this red line then it will cancel off the bullishness and this will become a fake breakout which is not good.

Resistant: 1. 1443             2. 1450                 3. 1461

Support: 1. 1412               2. 1406                 3. 1400

 

Disclaimer: The materials shown above is just for education purposes. No buy or sell calls are intended. Please consult your brokers for investment decisions. The author above will not be responsible for any trading decision and action taken by the readers. 

Don't fight the FED?

Technical Analysis is always tricky, sometimes the whole scenario changes within a day, with just only a candle will portrait a whole different view. Hence it is fluid, which justify that the market is dynamic which is unlike the economy which is much slower.

As what we mentioned over the weekend, the pattern is perfect setup for short seller, but this changed after the big gap up green bar last night. It had break the resistant of the thick blue line and is back in strength which is the scenario A as what BCF hope.

This had cancelled off the short selling setup. Let’s look at the chart for clearer picture.

DJIA

The big green bar on 18/5 had a gap up and break the resistant on thick blue line decisively, it has to stay above the gap up to remain bullish, or else it will cancel off the bullishness.

On the other hand, the thick blue line had turned into a supporting point right now. Going below will not be good.

Something to notice is that DJI failed to break the resistant on 24805 again. DJI is the only index that still yet to get back above 61.8% Fibo retracement. 

SP500

SP500 is bullish where it had a big gap up and green bar which challenge the monthly resistant on 2945 and close above it. SP500 had also closed at the highest since 24^th March.

Looking at the chart, seems like it had chosen Scenario A, however, it is important for SP500 to stay above the gap to remain bullish, sealing the gap will cancel off the bullishness.

Its important for it to stay above the thick blue supporting line, or else it could turn out to be scenario C which is not good. 

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gap up as well and the interesting part is that it gap up and break the resistant of Fibo 78.6% and close above it. Just like the 2 indices above, the gap up is an important benchmark where closing the gap will cancel off the bullishness.

It is also worth noting that Nasdaq had hit the red resistant line and retrace, this mean that strong selling pressure persist at this level. This could mean that the upside of longing it now is not much. 

Disclaimer: The materials shown above is just for education purposes. No buy or sell calls are intended. Please consult your brokers for investment decisions. The author above will not be responsible for any trading decision and action taken by the readers. 

FBMKLCI TP 1500?

FBMKLCI had lots of trading volume lately, but its more on glove and healthcare counter follow by small cap companies. 

The abnormal high volume isn't an healthy phenomena, but we don believe this may last until before Hari Raya holiday.  Hence investor and traders will need to be aware. 

Looking at the chart, if there is a strong breakout at this level, then u may see KLCI heading to the high of 1500 points. Can we? Let's hope for the best. 

FBMKLCI

FBMKLCI was doing quite well over the week, however there are still huge selling pressure above 1400 points where u can see the candle has long upper line. It is interesting to see that the index had rose over the week, however, the last 2 candles had tried to challenge the red resistant line and settle below the line.

Looking at FBMKLCI which is well supported by the uptrend supporting line (thick blue) and it still unable to break the resistant line too. This had form a wedge pattern and we are almost towards the end, this could indicate that FBMKLCI is about to choose its direction.

If we could break the red resistant line decisively with a big bar could indicate bullishness and breaking below the blue supporting line will be bad for FBMKLCI.

 

Resistant: 1. 1412 (50% fibo)                       2. 1420                          3. 1430

Support: 1. 1400                                           2. 1380                          3. 1364

FBMKLCI Weekly

FBMKLCI weekly chart shows a big green bad which formed a bullish engulfing pattern, however it is still an inside bar for 20 April which indicate the chart has yet to decide on its direction.

A breaking up on the red resistant line will indicate bullishness, and breaking up above 1430 might indicate the index are potential to touch 1500 points. However, we believe this could only happen if US market didn’t have any big correction at the meantime.

 

Disclaimer: The materials shown above is just for education purposes. No buy or sell calls are intended. Please consult your brokers for investment decisions. The author above will not be responsible for any trading decision and action taken by the readers.  

US indices: A perfect set up for short sellers?

Last week has been a rough week where US market started the week with a fall of 1000 points in 2 days, however, it manage to regain some of it losses by end of the week. 

Though it had regain some of it losses, but this doesn't mean we are safe yet, unless DJIA and SP500 manage to stand back above their "Thick blue uptrend supporting line". Failing to achieve this requirement then it will be " A perfect setup for short sellers"

lets begin our weekly update.. 

DJIA

DJIA retraced and close lower for the week. DJI break the critical support of the thick blue line which is not a good sign. DJI had once again challenge the support on 23380 where it break it and regain its stand after a day.

However, looking at the chart pattern BCF think that DJI doesn’t look good. This is because it had drop below the thick blue supporting line. It is important for DJI to stand back above the thick blue supporting line, failing to stand back on it will indicate a “significant” downtrend is coming.

Scenario A

The DJI manage to go up and stand back on the thick blue line then everything will still be alright.

Scenario B

DJI manage to go up but failed to stand back on the thick blue line and started to retrace. Breaking the support on 23000 which is also the low on 14^th May will not be good.

Scenario C

This will be the trickiest scenario, where DJI manage to get back above the thick blue supporting line, but break down after that. This indicate the break up is a fake signal and dropping below the tbs line will be very bad. This might see a strong downtrend which looks like a downpour.

BCF personally hope for scenario A, however, please be aware and cautious of scenario B & C and get ready your trading plan if that’s happen. Personally, scenario B & C could be an ideal setup for short seller.

Supporting: 1. 23380                      2. 230000                           3. 22800

Resistant: 1. 23856                         2. 24000                             3. 24380

DJIA Weekly

Apparently the bullish engulfing pattern last week had failed. The big red candle this week doesn’t looks good as it break the critical thick blue line support. However, the good point is that it still manage to close back above the supporting of 200 weekly moving average. 

SP500

SP500 had also follow the trading pattern of DJI where it break down the critical thick blue line supporting and the monthly neckline. The good point is, it manage to stand back up on the thick blue supporting line on Friday. 

SP500 had rose back to the tbs line, however, we need to monitor very closely whether it can support on top of the thick blue supporting line which will be the scenario A.

Scenario B

If fail to stand back up like red arrow 1, and break the support then it could mean a “significant” downtrend.

Scenario C

SP500 stand back up and break down like blue arrow 2 follow by red arrow 2, this will be the trickiest and it would be very bad once it break down the critical supports.

However, to short sellers, this could be the perfect setup that they want.

Resistant: 1. 2900                            2. 2945                                3. 3000

Supporting: 1. 2861                         2. 2821                                3. 2800

SP500 Weekly

The weekly chart for SP500 show something interesting. U can clearly see that the index touches the resistant on 61.8% of Fibo retracement and started to come down, this clearly indicate 2945 is a strong resistant point.

It is interesting to see that SP500 weekly chart had also rebounded from its intra week low and stay above the thick blue uptrend supporting line, this do also indicate it’s a strong supporting level which shall not be broken. 

Nasdaq

The strongest index where it still manage to stay above the rising channel. It is interesting to see that the index had retrace and rebounded just after it almost touch the thick blue supporting line. This indicate that the index is well supported and the thick blue supporting line is an important supporting level.

Nasdaq will still be in good shape as long as it don’t drop below the thick blue uptrend supporting line.

Resistant: 1. 9065                            2. 9167                                3. 9227

Support:  1. 9000                             2. 8900                                3. 8800

Nasdaq Weekly

Nasdaq weekly had shown a big doji which is a candle pattern that indicate the index has yet to choose its direction.

 

Disclaimer: The materials shown above is just for education purposes. No buy or sell calls are intended. Please consult your brokers for investment decisions. The author above will not be responsible for any trading decision and action taken by the readers.  

Sell on May finally started? 13/5 updated

DJIA

DJIA close lower last night, where it drop and break the support on 24k and 23860. However, it still manage to support on the thick blue line support, this is a very important support which breaking it could mean reversal.

Breaking low could also indicate the surge on 29th April is a fake breakout. 

Support: 1. 23738                            2. 23380                             3. 23000

S&P 500

S&P 500 have a long red bar last night and it fail to break 2933 for the 3^rd time. The bad thing is, the candle pattern form a bearish engulfing which is a bearish indicator.

However, it is worth noting that S&P is still above the thick blue line support. Breaking this line could be a reversal sign. Have to be aware.

Support: 1. 2855                              2. 2821                                3. 2800

Nasdaq

The chart for Nasdaq is really interesting. It’s the strongest amongst all where it had break the resistant of fibo 78.6%, however it failed to stay above it.

As per what we mentioned, Nasdaq drop back below the uptrend resistant line. The bad thing is, Nasdaq had a big red bar last night and form a bearish engulfing candle at peak which is a bearish sign.

It is important for Nasdaq to stay above the thick blue supporting line in order to remain bullish, breaking below it might indicate a reversal of trend.

Supporting: 1. 9000                         2. 8900                                3.  8800

Strategy: this could be a good point to short and take profit when it hit the thick blue line. 

Disclaimer: The materials shown above is just for education purposes. No buy or sell calls are intended. Please consult your brokers for investment decisions. The author above will not be responsible for any trading decision and action taken by the readers.  

Can Bursa Survive the Confident vote?

FBMKLCI

FBMKLCI consider quite weak as it still fail to break the resistant of 50% Fibo retracement.

FBMKLCI was not really doing well despite US market was doing well last week. BCF notice that the FBMKLCI has been trading with lots of selling pressure, where the index had been trading well for whole day but it close low by last minute. This don’t look good, perhaps its related to our current politic situation.

Looking at FBMKLCI there is a strong uptrend supporting line, breaking below the line may see it trade lower.

On the other hand, we can see that there is a resistant line (red line) which breaking it will be a good breakout for FBMKLCI.

Support: 1. 1380 (the thick blue line)                    2. 1364 (Fibo 38.2%)                       3. 1355

Resistant: 1. 1400                                                  2. 1412 (Fibo 50%)                           3. 1429

FBMKLCI Weekly 

FBMKLCI weekly chart shows a bearish harami pattern, however, we will take it as an inside bar that has yet to choose it’s direction. Breaking the support of the thick blue line could be the beginning of the next leg down.

I believe the market wouldn’t be performing well due to our politic situation, especially there are speculations about the confidence vote on 18 May. However, BCF believe the voting might not happen on that day but it might delay until the next meeting which begin from 23rd July to 27 August 2020.

Nevertheless, we saw a good drama in Malacca DUN today, do expect more drama in other states as well as in Parliament on 18^th May.

Disclaimer: The materials shown above is just for education purposes. No buy or sell calls are intended. Please consult your brokers for investment decisions. The author above will not be responsible for any trading decision and action taken by the readers.  

Sell on May? but the chart looks bullish!

The 1st trading week of May is indicating a bullish pattern, hence does selling in May still valid? 

We believe it would be better to wait for reversal pattern before selling. 

DJIA

DJIA started the week with a small green candle and form a bullish counter attack chart pattern on Monday follow by a gap up on Tuesday but close with a small shooting star. DJIA had been on a bumpy ride over the week where 3 out of 5 trading days were close lower and fail to close above the resistant of 24000. However, DJIA manage to close higher on the last trading day and back above the resistant of 24,000 point.

As long as DJIA don’t drop below the blue line and 23800 then DJIA should be still doing fine which could be upward bias. However, one thing to notice is that the volume is decreasing.

Resistant:  1. 24655                        2. 24805                             3. 25000                             4. 25200

Support:    1. 24000                        2. 23800                             3. 23380

DJIA Weekly

DJIA weekly chart shows a lower opening and close high chart which is almost a bullish engulfing chart, this looks likes it will be bullish bias for next candle.

S&P 500

S&P 500 consider the second strongest for US market which is performing slightly better compare to DJIA where it is about to challenge the recent high of 2953, on the other hand, SP500 also is about challenge the 61.8% fibo retracement which is the resistant now. As long as SP500 don’t break below the supporting of 2890 and the blue line, then it will be upward bias.

Resistant: 1. 2933                            2. 2944                                3. 3000

Support:   1. 2900                            2. 2890                                3. 2850

S&P 500 Weekly

SP 500 have got a big green candle for this week where it also form a candle pattern of bullish engulfing which indicate bullishness for next candle. 

Nasdaq

 Nasdaq has been pretty bullish over the week where it had 3 gap up and close highest. This is the strongest index for US market. Nasdaq had break its resistant on 8916, 8968 and 9000. The next resistant will be the fibo retracement of 78.6% (9172).

The surge in Nasdaq is very bullish however, we can see that it had just break the uptrend resistant line, based on the past 2 times, it broke the resistant and retrace, will this time be the same again?

Resistant: 1. 9172                            2. 9200                                3. 9300 (the gap down area)

Support:   1. 9000                            2. 8916                                3. 8787

Something to notice is that the weightage of Nasdaq is led by a few companies.

        1.      Microsoft 11.84%

        2.      Apple 11.44%

        3.      Amazon 9.98%

        4.      FB 4.31%

        5.      Googl  4.02%

        6.      Goog 3.99%

        7.      Intel 2.74%

        8.      Nvdia 2.06%

        9.      Netflix 2.06%

      10.   Pepsi 2.01%

      Source: https://www.slickcharts.com/nasdaq100

      These 10 companies are now 54.45% of Nasdaq, which mean these will be the company that dictates the direction of Nasdaq.

   Nasdaq Weekly

We understand that the daily chart shows that there is an uptrend resistant which might causes Nasdaq to retrace. However, something to notice is that the weekly chart form a very strong reversal which is a bullish engulfing chart. This is quite a bullish chart which could indicate another green candle for coming week.

Disclaimer: The materials shown above is just for education purposes. No buy or sell calls are intended. Please consult your brokers for investment decisions. The author above will not be responsible for any trading decision and action taken by the readers.  

US market TA comment: Sell on May?

DJIA

DJIA started the week with a powerful green bar and break the resistant of 50% Fibonacci retracement. However, the uptrend made a top on Wednesday and started to retrace and close below the support on 24000 as well as the 50% FB retracement support (23859). As we can see from the chart, the monthly resistant of 24805 is very strong.

Based on historical data, the saying of Sell on May is kinda valid. As a result, it would be good to side-line and monitor how low it can go. It is also important to monitor if DJIA can sustain above the supporting of 23000 and 22524.

Supporting level:  1. 23380            2. 23000              3. 22524

Resistant level:      1. 23859           2. 24000              3. 24805

DJIA weekly chart shown that the resistant of 23859 is very strong, where it had challenge the resistant again but failed to stay above it for the 2^nd time.

On the other hand, the weekly candle for this week has a long upper tail which looks like a shooting star. It is a sign of toppish which indicate strong selling pressure on top.

It is important for us to monitor whether the index will break all the support and challenge previous low or it will form a higher low. 

The monthly chart for DJIA shows that April had a big rebound (+14%) and formed a bullish counter attack formation which is quite bullish. Eventhough it’s a bullish formation, we can also notice that it had hit the resistant of 24805 and started to retraced.

Even its quite bullish but the 1^st trading day of May had a 3% retracement which form a small red bar which is still an inside bar for April’s bar.

Looking at the chart, we can see that the bar on March is a “Twin fractal bar”. This bar is quite an important candle, as the top and bottom of the candle will be the landmark that differentiate the bull and the bear.

This mean that if DJI able to break the resistant of 27121 and stay above it then the index is back to the bull stage and this 27121 will be a very strong support. If the Index unable to sustain above 18200 and close below it, that’s mean the index might head south further. 18200 will be a very strong resistant.

S&P 500

S&P500 started the week with a gap up and break the break the monthly resistant and challenge the cluster of 2944 and resistant on 61.8% Fibo retracement (2933) on Wednesday, however, it failed to stay above these resistant and fall back on Thursday follow by a gap down on Friday. The gap down red bar on Friday had cancel off the gap up bullish effect of Monday bar.

The index rebounded after it hit the supporting on 2820 and close slightly higher, I believe the index will soon challenge this supporting again. It is important to see if S&P 500 manage to stay above the supporting on 2822 follow by 2792.

Supporting level: 1. 2820               2. 2792                 3. 2750

Resistant level:    1. 2888               2. 2933                 3. 2946

Looking at the weekly chart, it had formed a candle with small candle body but long upper line which is a shooting star candle pattern which indicate toppish. It is important to monitor whether will it break through all the supporting to form a higher low or will break the low of 2192. 

Looking at the monthly candle chart, the candle on April is impressive. However the candle on March is much important as it is an important benchmark to tell if we are out of the woods, or not. If it could break the resistant on 3135, meaning we will be out of the woods while breaking 2192 means, it is going to be doom. 

Nasdaq