Tuesday, August 27, 2013

SPAC Boom! (Part 4) : How worst could it be?

1st QE tappering and foreign fund flight
2nd South East Asia currency crisis???
3rd US to hit Debt Ceiling latest by Mid of October 2013
4th US may shoot missiles to Syria as soon as this Thursday

Has all the issues above scares you???

Will the market fall somemore? What is the best time to buy??? What is the best price to get blue chips? It's really a tough question as the market is now very shaky and we are not sure whether which blue chips will be hit down if the crisis really comes.

As a believer of SPAC, I will still tell you that the SPAC is a best buy at this juncture. Why???

1st SPAC always have 90% of their IPO proceeds with their trustee as long as they haven't purchase any assets. 

According to the theory above, we can see that CLIQ and SONA still has 90% of their cash in the "vault" as long as they haven't purchase any asset. Which mean CLIQ has RM0.675 in the bank while SONA has RM0.45 in the bank.

CLIQ
Looking at their closing price today, where CLIQ close at RM0.62. We can say that buying CLIQ now is equals to using RM0.62 to buy a share that has RM0.675 cash in it. Is this value investment? Is it worth?
On the other hand, if the SPAC fails to acquire any asset within 3 years which is 10 April 2016 that means they are going to repay you all the money inculde the interest that the money earn for 3 years.

Imagine that the interest rate that being earn by that amount of money is just 2% per annum.
 From 10 April 2013 til 10 April 2014, your money become RM0.6885 (RM0.675*1.02).
 From 10 April 2014 til 10 April 2015, your money become RM0.702227 (RM0.6885*1.02).
 From 10 April 2015 til 10 April 2016, your money become RM0.716315 (RM0.702227*1.02).

The gain that you make from this investment will be
 RM0.716 - RM0.62 = RM0.096 or 0.096/0.62 = 15.48%. 15.48% in 3 years, which will be averagely 5% a year. Good investment?

SONA
Looking at their closing price today, where SONA close at RM0.39. We can say that buying SONA now is equals to using RM0.39 to buy a share that has RM0.45 cash in it. Is this value investment? Is it worth?
On the other hand, if the SPAC fails to acquire any asset within 3 years which is 30 July 2016 that means they are going to repay you all the money inculde the interest that the money earn for 3 years.

Imagine that the interest rate that being earn by that amount of money is just 2% per annum.
 From 30 July 2013 til 30 July 2014, your money become RM0.459 (RM0.45*1.02).
 From 30 July 2014 til 30 July2015, your money become RM0.46818 (RM0.459*1.02).
 From 30 July 2015 til 30 July 2016, your money become RM0.47754 (RM0.46818*1.02).

The gain that you make from this investment will be
 RM0.47754 - RM0.39 = RM0.08754 or 0.08754/0.39 = 22.45%. 22.45% in 3 years, which will be averagely 7% a year. Good investment?

According to the simple calculations above, Sona is definitely a good buy compare to CLIQ 
Well, that was assuming that they failed to acquire any assets. Do U think they will failed to do so? As we know, CLIQ is going for assets that is close to production and its about 4 months since listed. I believe they will announce their target after the market had calm down as thats a better time and much more easier for them to push the price instead of now, but will U be able to buy at a cheaper price? or they will rebound soon? These are really hard question to tell, if not, I would have already asked you to sell everything before the sell down. LoL..

HOW WORST COULD IT BE? 

Looking at the situation now, its more like a panic sell down by the retailers after getting affected by the Foreign capital flight. Its normal for RM to drop as the foreign funds flowing out as they have to change it back to USD to repay their debt for carry trade. They can't pay it with RM right?

Good Luck and Huat ah! 

 Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions




Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Is financial crisis around the corner?

FBMKLCI Down by 32.94 points or 1.85% today while Thailand fell about 27.62 points or 1.98%, Indonesia fell 138.53 points or 3.21% in a single day. Indonesia had droped about 524.74 points or 11.2% from 15 august 2013 while Thailand drop about 89.77 points or 6.2%. Malaysia drop 48.39 points or 2.7% since 14 August 2013.

Looking at the big drop, lots of investors has started to worried whether should they sell? Is this just the beginning? Is there any big crisis around the corner?

Personally, I don't think that this is a very big deal and I would advice to take this opportunity to buy good stock on weakness. Why?


1st, the market was dropping not due to our economy is having any big issue but it was due to the FED tappering! 



As we know, the QE had press down the cost of fund in America, where we can see that their 10 years treasury rate was just about 1.6%. This was due to the US govt keep buying back the treasury which is creating more demand just to press down their interest rate for the economy to move back again. This is because the company will have cheap money to do business and those with jobs can buy house again with such a low interest rate.

As the funds are cheap, investors will take the opportunity to do the "carry trade" where they borrow the cheap fund to invest in other places. We can say that they abuse what the FED plan to do but this is human isn't it? After getting the cheap money, they invested in SE Asia and some emerging markets which causes them to rose since last year.

Until somewhere around May, there are concern about FED is going to tapper QE if the unemployment rates turn better and better inflation rate and this has create some unrest in the market. Why? As the FED is tappering, thats mean they are not going to create as much demand as before for the Treasury. This will causes the price of the Treasury to fall while having a higher yield. What will you do when your cost of capital rose? You will try to repay as soon as possible right? That explained why do the market fell so badly since Bernanke talk about tappering.  Anyway, QE tappering is actually telling us that the consumer giant is about to awake again!

IT's obvious that its the foreign funds are running away from the market due to the higher cost of funds, and this can be proven by the weakening ringgit towards other currencies. This was due to the foreigners need to get back USD in order to go back their country ( they won't use RM in US right? LOL)

Anyhow, we can see that our GDP as well as Thailand GDP is not doing well for last and this quarter. Yes, this will be an issue to us as economy is not doing well. Our GDP will not doing well due to the fall of the CPO price which contributes a lot to our GDP. Even this might be a bad news for us but I think it wouldn't be worst as long as our big brother US awaken!

When US awaken, the demand had came back and we will start to export item again and economy will still grow.

In short, grab some good stock when U think the valuation and pricing is right at this falling chance. Remember, buying stock is to invest and not to gamble. 

Personally, CLIQ and SONA will still be my top call as their mother share is real safe for now. U have a 90% cash back guarantee if they failed to purchase anything. If they purchase something and have good prospect, then there is only 1 direction to go. On the other hand, maybe U should avoid property stock as the rising interest will causes lower demand for the housing industry. I'm still positive with medium term.  Hope that I'm right.

Good Luck and Huat ah! 

 Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions

Monday, August 19, 2013

SPAC Boom! (Part 3) Different Stages of SPAC

 
Would like to add up some point that I've ommited in Part 2.

After mentioning about the risk of investing is great, its important to know that the risk of investing in the mother shares of SPAC was just about 10% of the IPO price. This is because of the 90% will be given back if the SPAC failed to acquire any assets in 3 years time. Only warrant holder will suffer the most if they failed to acquire as the warrant holder are not allowed to convert to mother shares if they SPAC failed to make any acquisition.

Different Stages of SPAC
 There are 5 different stages of SPAC for small fish like you and me. Each stage provides U a different theme as well as the return.

 The Initial Stage
This is the stage where the SPAC looking for money and this is the IPO Stage.

Looking at the past, the very 1st  SPAC in Malaysia wasn't really doing well at this stage as Hibiscus was only able to get a total of RM235 million as initially looking for about RM300 million from the IPO. This was due to the lack of knowledge from the Investors as this was the 1st SPAC and the investors are too afraid of new thing and adopt "wait and see" strategy.
(quoted from http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/184264-hibiscus-to-test-investors-reception-for-spac.html)

2nd SPAC CLIQ ENERGY wasn't too bad. They targeted RM150million to RM500million but gets only RM363.5 million.
(quoted from http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/07/22/cliq-energy.aspx)

3rd SPAC SONA Petroleum currently the best among the all as the company had successfully raised RM550 million from IPO just like what they targeted.
(quoted from http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/07/31/sona-petroleum-makes-successful-debut-on-bursa-malaysia/)

The Asset hunting Stage
This is the stage where SPAC is loaded with $$ and now its time to lookfor good asset to acquire. This is 1 of the stage that able to create Castle in the air for the investors or some will call it the Price to Dream. This helps to explain why the share price of CLIQ and SONA is higher than therir listing price. Sona is in this stage now.

Found the Asset
After able to look for the Asset that they wanted to invest in, they will start to evaluate and do all sorts of research making sure that they are not investing in a lousy asset which gonna ruin the whole company as well as the reputation of SPAC. According to the management team, CLIQ is under this stage where they are looking at 5 oil and gas asset and evaluate whether which to go. 

Purchase of Asset & EGM
After those evaluations and quality assurance, the company had decided to invest in such asset. Due to the rules and regulations, the SPAC will have to conduct an EGM in order to get the approval from the shareholders before purchasing the asset. The SPAC will only able to purchase the asset after getting approval from their shareholders. 

Dig for BLACK GOLD
It's the time for seven little dwarf to do their job! We dig dig dig dig dig dig dig dig dig (reminding me about the song that the Seven little dwarf in the story of Snow White) Its the time we Dig our Oil Field and pray hard for the Black GOLD to be found soon! Hibiscus is currently at this stage and I think that they are about to hit the pot after listed for 2 years. Maybe it's a good chance to join the boat again? 

Hitting the POT!
This is the place when the company get their 1st drop of OIL!!! What do U think when they hit oil? Personally I think thats where the company will turn from a dream to a reality. Anyway, the share price of the company has big probability to move up to what it should be as it is able to produce profit for a long period until the oil field dry up.





Personally, I think Hibiscus will be the 1st SPAC to hit the pot as they are the 1st to get listed. By looking at the share price movement, I think there are something brewing in the company, have they got their 1st drop of oil? Let's see what will the management tell you on their AGM later. It's worth to take a look at their share price movement later as they might have good news to announce on their AGM. Let's get our finger cross. 


On the other hand, is CLIQ close to striking any asset acquisition deal? Ermm.. It's interesting, as the management had mentioned that they were evaluating which is the best to acquire. I do think that it will be great if they acquire an oil field which close to production as we will not get our neck long for their  prouction. Anyway, I think if you don't mind locking your money down for about 6 months, CLIQ will be a good choice as it closed at RM0.69 which is close to the 90% of the listed price which is RM0.75*0.9= RM0.675. It's quite a safe bet!

Hibiscus might be close to their 1st drop of oil, CLIQ might be close to their 1st acquisition. The issue mentioned above deem to be the factor that will drive the price to go up in near future. Which 1 do you think will come 1st? Who will be your choice? Good Luck and Huat ah!

 Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

A very good post from Le Investment

Came across this website and found this article which talk about my darling stock CLIQ. It really worth reading. I think RM1.00 for mother share is not a fantasy and it might go even higher! Huat ah!
 
周期分析: CLIQ能源(CLIQ:5234) 可以用木槿花石油为参考的目标吗?

CLIQ能源(CLIQ,5234,主板特別并购)是一间在油气领域的特別并购公司;该公司会寻找与收购能为投资者增值的资产。

SPAC是一间特別并购公司,在掛牌时应没有业务或者收入,其上市的目的就是筹措资金,以便去寻找与收购能为投资者增值的公司。

CLIQ能源就是一间特別并购公司,该公司拥有3年的时间去寻找符合条件的资产,如果届时没有找到,必须把90%在掛牌时所筹获的资金退还给投资者。

在美国,只有一半的特別并购公司完成真正的收购工作,而有关收购平均造成18.6%的负成长。

木槿花石油(HIBISCS,5199,主板工业产品组)是第一间特別并购公司,目前已收购了勘探和生产业务的公司,并正在进行其勘探活动。

CLIQ能源是在今年4月10日掛牌,是第二 间特別并购公司。SONA石油(SONA,5241)是第三间特別并购公司,它是在今年7月30日掛牌。

木槿花石油是在2011年7月25日掛牌,当天此股以0.54开出,最高掛0.58,当天最低0.52,当天收市掛0.53。

此股后来在2012年4月13日升至2.19的高价,上周三,即8月7日,此股掛1.45。

由于木槿花石油可以从掛牌当天最低的0.52,逐渐升至2.19,升幅1.67,上升天数263天,回酬率达321.15%,因此,大家认定CLIQ能源及SONA石油也会有同样的表现。

但,那只是一种迷思,不一定会成为事实,保守的人说,只要升至1令吉,他们也是有利可图了,因此,CLIQ能源及SONA石油的飙升是建立在人们相信这两只股会有飙升的可能;基础相信是虚的,他们的投资信心不是建立在公司的业务表现上,因为这两间公司目前仍没有业务。

周期分析

假定你手上持有1万 令吉现金,并且已经掌握了低买高卖的技术,你会在2013年5月3日以0.56买入1万7000股,并且在2013年5月20日以0.85沽出,凈赚4753.99,持票天数17天,回酬率49.94%,升幅0.29令吉。

第二次买入机会是在6月26日出现,假定你在当天以0.63买入1万7000股,并且在7月18日以0.785沽出,凈赚2458.45,持票天数22天,回酬率22.95%,升幅0.16。

从Metastock的图表看,此股的近期低点落在7月31日的0.645。

假如你在7月31日以0.645买入1万7000股,则可以在8月6日以0.715沽出,凈赚1020.34,持票天数6天,回酬率9.31%,升幅0.07。

上周三,即8月7日,此股掛0.705。

让我们看看中国的《弘历》投资软件有什么指示?主力资金是在7月31日陷入低点,当天收市掛0.65。

8月1日,主力资金进一步增多,散户则相对减少,当天收市掛0.68。

红圈买入讯号是在8月6日出 现,当天收市掛0.715。

如果根据主力资金的动向,你在看到主力资金於7月31日陷入低点后,即可以考虑在8月1日开市时以0.66买入,因为在7月31日时,此股陷入0.645的低点,收市回弹至0.65,已经出现两个正面的讯号。

此股有机会挑战0.785的第一道阻力,假如可以顺利通过,则会挑战0.85的第二道阻力,只有通过这两道阻力,才可以晋入一个无人可以挑战的空间。

此股投资要点:

1。 如果以木槿花石油为参考的目标,当然希望可以达到2.19的高价,但木槿花石油目前站稳在1.45,可以达到1.45的目标,投资者也会满意的。

2。 CLIQ能源至今接获38项计划书且从中挑选出5项符合要求的计划进入全面估值阶段,而区域涵盖印尼、巴布亚新几内亚及大马。

3。 收购受鉴定资产所需的成本至少5000万美元,而生产阶段的资产价 格则更加昂贵。只要可以完成收购,相信此股要升至1.45,是有机会的。1.45是以木槿花石油的市场价作为参考,是一个心理价格,是没有计算基础的。

4。 该公司必须遵从非常严格的估值过程,从受批准查阅目标资产资料,全面技术分析到资金调动,整个过程预计需要1年时间,因此在未来一两年内仍会非常波动,因此可以留意低买高卖的价格。

乐投资 专稿,转载请注明!)
Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions
 

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

SPAC Boom! (Part 2)

After coming back from holiday, it's time to get back into BIZ again. Its time to continue with my story telling session again! To continue with the SPAC Boom, 1 of my beloved lecture had give me a task by convince him that why should he invest in SPAC instead of those listed company which already has good track record and gives good dividend. 

To answer this question, I would have to touch about the concept of investing as well as the risk profile.

Investing in company with good track record and dividend
1st. Investing in a company that already has good track record is because we know about the past of the company and we could evaluate the company whether is it worth to invest or not. On the other hand, this is a very safe strategy to invest as we knew the pattern of the management and the capability to make profit in future. As long as the company is still doing well hence they will create wealth to the shareholders which is also the ultimate role of the board. As a result, those investors who invested in this company will be quite safe and get good dividend while enjoying the value growth in the company.

This is a traditional way of investing which I would say its quite safe and able to create wealth in long run, and it has proven that its 1 of the most succesful trading method we've seen. The best example will be Warren Buffet as well as Cold Eye (冷眼).

Investing in SPAC
SPAC, a new avenue for talented person to set up a company without going to those venture capital which will squeeze them. SPAC is usually the initial point of the company where they have an idea and get money from investor to realise their idea. At this juncture, the company is selling you a "dream" by promising you that they will acquire good oil field that generates certain percentage of return which will be the bread and butter in future.

As a result of the company has no track record, the money that you invested in is very risky as you have no idea whether will the dreams come true or not. Anyhow, thanks to Bursa Malaysia that tries to protect us by having such rules as refunding 90% of the cash proceed from IPO to the shareholders which that mitigate our risk from losing everything if the company fails to acquire any assets.. On the other hand, the investor who invested their money into the SPAC should no longer call them as Investor but Venture capitalist. This is because we are now taking over the position of the venture capital or private equity and invest in the newly listed company.

Due to the high risk of investing in those company that is at its start up point, the return is usually good when it succeed. According to National Venture Capital Association of USA, It is estimated that 40 percent of venture backed companies fail; 40 percent return moderate amounts of capital; and only 20 percent or less produce high returns. It is the small percentage of high return deals that are most responsible for the venture capital industry consistently performing above the public markets. 

According to wikipedia
Venture capital (VC) is financial capital provided to early-stage, high-potential, high risk, growth startup companies. The venture capital fund makes money by owning equity in the companies it invests in, which usually have a novel technology or business model in high technology industries, such as biotechnology, IT and software. The typical venture capital investment occurs after the seed funding round as growth funding round (also referred to as Series A round) in the interest of generating a return through an eventual realization event, such as an IPO or trade sale of the company. Venture capital is a subset of private equity. Therefore, all venture capital is private equity, but not all private equity is venture capital.

After the capital protection from SC, the risk that we are taking are much more lesser and you can sit there and enjoy the show that run by the talented person. But wait, how do we make money? Capital appreciation seems to be the main factor that drive us invest in SPAC and this will happen when we believe the company is able to acquire a good oil field that can produce tonnes of crude oil for us, the company will become a little Petronas that produce oil in future. Are we building castle in the air? Indeed, and that's how we make quick buck right? Without any valuation that proves the price is overvalued and this make the price go up sky high and it will go even higher when they strike their first drop of Crude oil.

To those who invested in SPAC, we are all venture capitalist that afford for risk, we are oil digger that hunger for black gold which will bring us huge return. To those that who still refuse to be part of us, U can still get rich just that the time frame of safe investment will usually be longer than those who take more risk. High Risk, High Return ma...

In short, SPAC is for high risk profiler!

As an investors, we should have a blend of agressive investment as well as conservative investment. As a result, SPAC is 1 of the best option for your risky investment!

U may be nervous that will it be too late to invest now, but let me explain to U that why is it not too late by now and what is my strategy for SPAC. On the other hand, I will share with U about CLIQ in the next part.

Last but not least, let me grab this opportunity to greet my Muslim friends and readers 
Have a nice holiday and enjoy your big day! 

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions

 



Monday, August 5, 2013

The take away from the Taiwan Trip


8 days and 7 nights, a short trip I would call and it's tiring but it's fruitful. Why? I think I've learned quite a lot even its just a short trip.

Many would say, what can U learn by travelling? Actually travelling can let us know more about the culture of the other nations and see what they doing and learn from them! After all, I would like to share some of my experience and learning right here no matter its good or bad. 

The Kitty Land
This country loves Hello Kitty so much! They have everything about Hello Kitty! From the toys in McDonalds, facial tissue with Hello Kitty, Masks with Hello Kitty packaging and even Diapers with Hello Kitty packaging, Landyard and more! The best part is even EVA Air has Kitty Plane too!
Its so crazy until I can address Taiwan as Hello Kitty Land! 


Traffic
1st thing I notice about Taiwan is their traffic. The driver seat is at the left side of the vehicle and they are driving at right lane instead of left lane. 
2nd thing is their traffic light. The traffic here is a bit weird especially the traffic light for pedestrian. The traffic light is green for the car to make a turn but its green for the pedestrian to cross the street also. As a Malaysian, we will always wait for the car to stop even the signal light is green but in Taiwan, they will still cross the road and the car will stop for them just like things in UK. Even though its a bit scary, but seems like nothing bad had happen under my observation. LoL.. 
As you can see in the pic, the pedestrian have the right to go 1st and maybe that's the reason why we are puzzled when crossing the road. Don't really think that this happens in Malaysia.

Food
The food here wasn't that special, personally still prefer the food in Malaysia. 1 thing that I noticed here is that the food here wasn't too oily even it's a fried chicken. On the other hand, The KFC there was not as popular as what it is in Malaysia and the KFC there was good too! Though it looks pale but the taste of their Original Fried Chicken is awesome!
1 thing to add is that to all my fellow Malaysian, please be reminded that the fast food restaurant in Taiwan doesn't provide Chilli Sauce so pls bring ur own sambal belacan. LoL..

Other than that, I was thinking that I wanted to try the original Oyster Mee Sua in Taiwan but sadly, the original Ah Chung Mee Sua shop is not selling Oyster Mee Sua but actually is Pig Cologne Mee Sua. The taste of it was good but just that a little bit disappointed as I can't get oyster but pig cologne.
 Hot Star fried chicken wasn't really surprising as well, the taste of it is just about the same as the one in Malaysia. 
Surpirsingly, the McDonalds in Taiwan is not serving pork and the only fast food restaurant that serves pork is Subway. Subway serves pork bacon with egg for their breakfast. 

7-11 
This is a must go place when you go to Taiwan, the drinks there will make you drool! Look at the picture! They have lots of variety and very nice packaging as well as very nice taste.
If U were to ask me whether what do I miss the most in Taiwan, I think my answer will be the beverages is Taiwan!

They do have some fruit beers as well and the beer taste good too! 


Salary
I'm not sure about the other industry in Taiwan but the retailing industries there seems like paying quite well. As what I saw from Feng Jia, they are hiring a shopkeeper which the pay will range from NTD30,000-NTD50,000 which is about RM3,200 to RM5,300. I think those fresh grad in Malaysia wouldn't get such a good pay in Malaysia unless you join the some of the bank in Malaysia. I'm not sure whether how expensive is the rental there but I think RM3,200 and with the food price there is good enough to survive! 

The Best thing that I learn from Taiwan
The best thing that I learn from them is their retailing sector. 1st their attitude is good, they will try not to let you feel that U r being ignored by greeting you and asking you to try their product even you are not buying. I know that this is 1 of the tactic to lure you but isn't it a very good attitude?

On the other hand, they are quite good in value adding. How? I think they work really hard on their branding  and put lots of effort on the packaging. The bottles of their "milk tea" is so pretty until I feels like bringing it home to serve as collection. 

After getting to know about the good attitude, packaging and also value adding, how can I apply all these good value on my own as well as my job? Ermm.. Something important to think about. LoL..

P/s: to those who are interested whether where did I visited in Taiwan, you are welcome to click on the link below YZTiandi  or go to  http://www.yztiandi.blogspot.com/
Thanks!



Stay VIGILANT!

US Market has been doing well last week, however, its always important to stay cautious.  Stay VIGILANT! DJIA  DJI closed higher over the we...